Jim Parinella talks about risk/reward for offence and defence.
I thought I would do a little intro to risk and reward.
And you get to participate!
Team A can reach the endzone in 10 short passes, each with a 90% probability of completion.
What is their probability of scoring? (hint: 0.90 x 0.90 x 0.90 x ...)
The same team can also reach the endzone in 2 long passes, but each of these has a 70% probability of completion.
What is their probability of scoring in this case?
So should Team A use short passes or long passes?
Team B can reach the endzone in 10 short passes, each with a 95% probability of completion.
Or Team B can alternatively reach the endzone in 2 long passes, each with a 60% chance of completion.
Should Team B use short passes or long passes?
These two scenarios illustrate risk and reward. Every pass has a risk, but some passes have a greater reward relative to their risk. Basically, break throws and long throws will have a greater risk than a simple 5 metre open pass, but sometimes the reward more than justifies that risk.
When I am playing defense, I think mostly about how to make the opposition (who are on offence) choose the wrong option, ie I first try to cover the potential passes that give them the best reward for risk.