Introduction to Risk/Reward

Jim Parinella talks about risk/reward for offence and defence.

I thought I would do a little intro to risk and reward.

And you get to participate!

Scenario 1
Team A can reach the endzone in 10 short passes, each with a 90% probability of completion.

What is their probability of scoring? (hint: 0.90 x 0.90 x 0.90 x ...)

The same team can also reach the endzone in 2 long passes, but each of these has a 70% probability of completion.

What is their probability of scoring in this case?

So should Team A use short passes or long passes?

Scenario 2
Team B can reach the endzone in 10 short passes, each with a 95% probability of completion.

Or Team B can alternatively reach the endzone in 2 long passes, each with a 60% chance of completion.

Should Team B use short passes or long passes?

These two scenarios illustrate risk and reward. Every pass has a risk, but some passes have a greater reward relative to their risk. Basically, break throws and long throws will have a greater risk than a simple 5 metre open pass, but sometimes the reward more than justifies that risk.

When I am playing defense, I think mostly about how to make the opposition (who are on offence) choose the wrong option, ie I first try to cover the potential passes that give them the best reward for risk.