18 October 2006

Introduction to Risk/Reward

Jim Parinella talks about risk/reward for offence and defence.

I thought I would do a little intro to risk and reward.

And you get to participate!

Scenario 1
Team A can reach the endzone in 10 short passes, each with a 90% probability of completion.

What is their probability of scoring? (hint: 0.90 x 0.90 x 0.90 x ...)

The same team can also reach the endzone in 2 long passes, but each of these has a 70% probability of completion.

What is their probability of scoring in this case?

So should Team A use short passes or long passes?

Scenario 2
Team B can reach the endzone in 10 short passes, each with a 95% probability of completion.

Or Team B can alternatively reach the endzone in 2 long passes, each with a 60% chance of completion.

Should Team B use short passes or long passes?

These two scenarios illustrate risk and reward. Every pass has a risk, but some passes have a greater reward relative to their risk. Basically, break throws and long throws will have a greater risk than a simple 5 metre open pass, but sometimes the reward more than justifies that risk.

When I am playing defense, I think mostly about how to make the opposition (who are on offence) choose the wrong option, ie I first try to cover the potential passes that give them the best reward for risk.

The 7 Postulates of Pulling

We undervalue good pulls. A quality pull will put the receiving team on the back foot, in their endzone, with time to get maybe one uncontested pass off.

A bad pull from your team says "We don't really care about defence, and we are happy to let our opponents start 44 metres from this endzone, instead of 60 or 70 metres downfield."

So pulling needs to receive more attention, more allocated time in training and more recognition by the pullers and the rest of the team. Not just occasional hollow support such as only saying "yeah, let's try and do better pulls".

The following 7 Postulates of Pulling are up for debate - but the need for more respect for pulling is not.

1. Only a designated puller may pull. (A designated puller is one chosen before training or the game, and has had pull training)

2. If there are too few designated pullers, the pulling captain chooses the substitute(s).

3. The puller must pull from the left or the right of the field, not from the middle where they would have teammates on either side.

4. The six teammates must stay on-side, so as not to get in the way or distract the puller's pull.

5. A puller shall throw a backhand.

6. A puller must have a pulling routine.

7. Pullers must be one of the four deepest defensive players (ie they are not asked to run down and contest the first couple of passes, by being in a cup, or marking a handler).

17 October 2006

Photos of forehand stances

Here are some photos of players' stances, just after or as they have thrown.

I have chosen forehand stances, as the forehand is a more unnatural action for many.
* Update - I removed some shots since they were still holding the disc or the camera angle was different (I want to compare apples with apples). But here are more from Mixed Nats 07:
Here are more again:
What works? What about their stances can they improve on? What do their stances say about their throwing action?

Do you have any photos to add?